Balances range from −100, when all respondents choose the negative option (or the most negative one, in the case of five-option questions) to +100, when all respondents choose the positive (or the most positive) option. Five reply options are common among consumer tendency surveys. If respondents are offered more than three choices – five reply options such as much better, better, same, worse, much worse – balances are calculated in the same way as in the three options case although weights are assigned to each option such as 1, 0.5, 0, -0.5, -1 going from much better to much worse. The net balance is then calculated by subtracting the (-) percentage from the (+) percentage, i.e. For example, if there are 200 respondents and 40 have replied (+), 60 (=) and 100 (-), in percentage terms these become 20, 30 and 50 respectively. The first step is to convert the numbers of answers to each of the three reply options into percentages. For convenience we denote up/ above normal by a (+), same/ normal by a (=) and down/ below normal by a (-). In most business tendency surveys, respondents can choose between three possible reply options: up, same, down, or above normal, normal, below normal. They are used to summarise answers to multiple-choice questions (three + reply options) in both BTS and COS. We expect a 6.1 rate of growth in the American economy this year. The board’s Leading Economic Index, released on Monday, showed a monthly gain of 0.5 in January to 110.3, continuing a string of increases. For further enquiries, please refer to the OECD System of Composite Leading Indicators.īalances (notation: B or NB for Net Balances) are commonly used unit of measure in Business Tendency Surveys (BTS ) and Consumer Opinion Surveys (COS ). The Conference Board’s leading economic indicator continues to point toward a reflation of the economy from the shock of the pandemic. The amplitude adjustment is the unit of measure used for the CLI to ensure that its cyclical amplitude on average agrees with that of de-trended reference series. Green growth and sustainable developmentīUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDICATOR standardisedīUSINESS SITUATION/ ACTIVITY: FUTURE TENDENCYĬONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDICATOR standardised.
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